This page contains an overview of my current working papers and work-in-progress. Comments are welcome.

  • "Subjective expectations and house prices"
    Jeppe Bro and Jonas N. Eriksen
    Working paper, 2023
    working paper

    Abstract:

    We study U.S. house price movements using a variance decomposition based on subjective expectations data from the University of Michigan’s Survey of Consumers. Contrary to previous VAR-based models for rational expectations, we find that households’ subjective cash flow (income) expectations account for the dominant share of the overall variation in house prices, whereas subjective discount rate (return) expectations are insignificant. We also show that households’ ex post forecast errors and ex ante belief distortions, defined as the difference between subjective and rational expectations, are persistent and associated with housing data, macroeconomic views of households, and credit conditions.


Work-in-progress

  • Debtor carry (with Mads M. Kjær)
  • Currency Imbalances in Global Banks and the Dollar (with Anders M. Posselt and Mads M. Kjær)